Monday, March 23, 2009

The Future If Nothing Changes...

From Vdare,

After the 2006 birth statistics were released, I reported in VDARE.com that 2006 represented a "demographic disaster". Now the 2007 numbers are out and, due to the combination of malign long term trends and the Bush-Rove Housing Bubble, they’re even more disastrous

Everything that suddenly got worse at an accelerated pace in 2006 kept on getting even worse in 2007, although usually at a slightly slower rate.

For example, the national illegitimacy rate suddenly grew from 36.9 percent in 2005 to 38.5 percent in 2006, a dramatic 1.6 point increase following a 1.1 point growth in 2005. In 2007, the out-of-wedlock rate was only up 1.2 points to 39.7 percent. So, you could say that the pace of worsening is decelerating, which sort of sounds good.

Or you could say that in 2007, two babies out every five were born to unwed mothers. And that sounds bad.

Because it is bad.

From 2005 to 2007, the number of babies born in the United States to married women declined 0.3 percent. In contrast, the number born to unmarried women grew 12.3 percent.

The illegitimacy rate was up in 2007 among all ethnicities, even among blacks, whom you might expect would be running out of ceiling room. Yet from 2005 to 2007, the black out-of-wedlock rate grew from 69.9 percent to 71.6 percent. Among whites, it was up 25.3 percent to 27.8 percent over those two years.

The fastest increase is found among Hispanics, up from 48.0 percent to 51.3 percent.

Hispanic women in 2007 had babies at the rate of three per lifetime (to be precise, a "total fertility rate" of 2.99, up from 2.89 in 2005). That’s 60 percent higher than the total fertility rate among non-Hispanic white women (1.86, below the "replacement rate").

-source


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